I’ve noticed a LOT of people prefer percentages over probability… but personally, I think it’s because we’re not taught probability very well in school. The whole statistic of “1 in 10 black men having a criminal record” just means that IF you picked 10 black men in DC at random and checked their background (and did this an infinite number of times), and then took ALL the results, it’d average out to 1 in 10. (Or, they figured “Well, about this many black men live in DC… and about this many of them have a criminal record, giving us about 10%. 1 in 10.”). Same thing with the coin-flipping. The closer you get to doing it an infinite number of times, the closer you get to 50%.

But I do think it’s amazing how 10% and 1 in 10 are technically the same thing, but one just FEELS so much more reliable than the other! If you’re interested in a book that talks about the whole “math and why people hate it” thing, check out Innumeracy. It’s an easy read, but really interesting.

As for the weather thing, heehee. I can just imagine you getting soaked, wondering why this 40% rain has turned into a 90% deluge/soak-fest. “Weatherman, you LIE!” It’s just that when they look at the records of days that had the same atmospheric conditions, it rained on 40% of those days, so they consider it a 40% likelihood of rain.

Oh, the perils of probability and percentages.

(Also, SO EXCITED for DWJ week. SQUEE.)

I am going to show your blog post to my husband so that he can get that there are other people like me as well who end up getting wet in the rain using the same arguments like I do 🙂

I use waterproofing spray on all of my purses & bags. And most of my shoes, if they’re the sort that can’t/shouldn’t get wet and they have enough fabric that they’re worth waterproofing.

But then, most of my purses are ugly canvas/cotton, so it’s not like I’m messing up anything designer.

I guess I’m used to having a car. I need to adjust my brain. :p

Hahaha, I love it. (My aunt won several thousand dollars with a lottery ticket once. It made me feel like winning was far more likely, even though that’s not how it really works.)

I like a good dramatic thunderstorm myself. Whenever I’m in London, which tends toward misty rain, I like that it doesn’t storm and upset my plans; but I love sitting at home reading while it crashes thunder and pours down rain outside. (Unless the power goes off, hurricane-style. Then it gets far less fun.)

I should get over it too! But I am always weighing the chance of rain against the chance that I will have to haul my umbrella around all day in my already-quite-heavy purse.

I don’t mind getting me wet, but I have this massive purse that contains a lot of things I want dry, most notably the notebook in which I am writing a story every morning with my coffee. And my book, and my phone, and things. But it is lovely to come home all cold and damp and get in a hot shower and then put on warm pajamas.

I kind of wish it were winter…

Yay! Support for my bad math skills makes me feel better about myself!